The hottest methanol market in China faces double

China's methanol market is facing double challenges

in recent years, China's demand for methanol has ranked first in the world, and a large number of imports are required every year. However, the domestic production cost is too high, coupled with the impact of a large number of low-cost imported methanol, so that the domestic methanol industry has been hit on both sides

the high cost makes domestic enterprises face difficulties

at present, there are nearly 200 methanol manufacturers in China. More than 65% of methanol enterprises use coal as raw material, and 80% of them use anthracite as raw material. In foreign countries, almost all methanol production uses natural gas, which is cheaper than coal to gas. Based on the coal price in January, 2009, the breakeven point of coal head methanol enterprises is 1900 ~ 2300 yuan/ton, and that of gas head enterprises is 1700 yuan/ton. Therefore, for a long time in the future, the domestic ex factory price of methanol is likely to fluctuate between 1600-2100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of dimethyl ether will be consolidated around 2600-3600 yuan/ton. Most enterprises will have to face the embarrassment of low profit or even loss operation

since the end of October 2008, the domestic methanol trading price has been lower than 2000 yuan/ton (US $230/ton based on the import equivalent benchmark), and many domestic manufacturers have been forced to greatly reduce the operating rate or completely stop production. These manufacturers need the methanol trading price between 2000 yuan and 2500 yuan/ton to survive. However, as of early February 2009, the methanol price in the domestic East China market was still hovering around 1800 yuan/ton, indicating that many domestic methanol plants are unlikely to increase their operating rate or reopen soon. The output of methanol in 2008 did not reach the expected 14million tons, only 11.26 million tons. In fact, at present, more than 40% of domestic methanol enterprises have stopped production, and the vast majority of methanol plants operate at low load, resulting in continuous reduction in output and supply

China will become the target market of the world's methanol producers

China will become the target market of the world's methanol producers. From the current distribution of import sources, the Middle East has the largest number, accounting for 56% of the total import volume; The second is New Zealand, accounting for 32% of national macro-control policies; Other countries have a smaller share. At present, the changes in the domestic methanol market are basically the same as those in foreign countries, but foreign methanol manufacturers have the advantages of large-scale devices, advanced production processes and low raw material prices. Recently, tariffs have been further reduced. For example, tariffs in 10 ASEAN countries are zero and tariffs in New Zealand are reduced to 3%, which will undoubtedly intensify the impact of foreign products on the domestic market

the international cheap natural gas to methanol has poured into China's market, which has also put great pressure on China's coal based methanol. In recent years, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries have built more than a dozen large-scale methanol projects relying on rich and cheap natural gas resources. From 2007 to 2009 alone, the cumulative capacity of methanol projects that have been or will be put into operation reached 9.2 million tons/year. In February, 2009, the full cost of methanol in the Middle East was only 1000 yuan/ton, while the cost of domestic coal based methanol was at least 1800 yuan/ton

what is more serious is that the world's major methanol production enterprises sell methanol as a commodity, with little self consumption. At the same time, these large-scale methanol production enterprises have their own ocean shipping fleets and storage and transportation facilities, so it is very convenient for methanol export. According to the trend of methanol plant construction, the world methanol production center is transferring to South America, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China. It is estimated that by 2012, the world's methanol production capacity will reach 94.96 million tons, and the methanol production capacity in the Middle East alone will be more than 25million tons, of which more than half of the products will be exported to Asia. It is an indisputable fact that China will become the target market for methanol producers in the world

in today's world economic integration, even if high-cost domestic methanol wants to be digested in China, it is not easy to transform and upgrade without high-tech. Therefore, innovation is the only way out for China's methanol enterprises. Especially for a large number of chemical fertilizer and methanol enterprises with a wide range, many points, small output and high cost in China, a series of innovations must be carried out from the development of derivatives to the development of new demand markets

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according to methanex, the world's largest methanol supplier, the global methanol market demand experienced a 15% decline in the fourth quarter of last year, and the performance in the first quarter of this year was relatively stable. According to the latest statistics of RI consulting company, as of the end of May, the world has a methanol production capacity of 51.052 million tons/year. According to the analysis of Houston chemical intelligence company, the demand of the global methanol market this year is likely to be less than 35 million tons

affected by the weakness of the construction industry, the demand for acetic acid and formaldehyde, the two main end markets downstream of methanol, has been seriously impacted. However, the demand from the Chinese market will partially make up for the decline in the global methanol market demand, because the shutdown of large-scale methanol plants in China has led to a substantial increase in the Chinese market for imported methanol. In March this year, China imported more than 650000 tons of methanol, and more than 600000 tons in April. In 2007 and most of 2008, the import volume was about 100000 tons/month. If the demand for imported methanol in the Chinese market falls, it is very difficult for global large methanol companies such as methanex to maintain prices

industry insiders said that the new capacity is being put into production. However, it is slightly gratifying that due to the lack of sufficient raw material supply, some manufacturers have to close some old devices while opening new devices, and it is the unchanging way for enterprises to survive without changing from phased success to becoming one of the top 500 domestic enterprises. To a certain extent, this eased the impact on the market caused by the large number of new production capacity. The growth of demand in the Chinese market and the idleness of some production units worldwide have prevented the further decline of methanol prices from reaching the minimum locking force. It is expected that the global methanol price should maintain a stable trend for the rest of this year

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