Speculation on real estate prospects caused by "10% down payment"
speculation on real estate prospects caused by "10% down payment"
February 29, 2012
[China paint information] on February 28, it was reported that the "10% down payment" that was popular at the end of 2008 was making a comeback. Some analysts believe that such developers may hide huge risks by paying the remaining down payment in advance and "transferring profits in disguise" in promotion. It is reported that this promotion method has attracted a lot of attention, among which only 10% of the down payment is required to sign a pre-sale contract. In addition, many developers in Nanjing, Hefei, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places have adopted the method of 10% down payment for promotion
"10% down payment" is a disguised way to reduce down payment and attract demand. It is a policy brush ball. Because the down payment is advanced by the company, the actual payment when dealing with the bank is still 30%, so it does not violate the relevant provisions of commercial housing sales. Indeed, once this form is carried out in a full range, it may lead to a rebound in real estate trading volume. However, under the background that the capital chain is still tight, how many property buyers can developers help pay 20% of the down payment
more importantly, we need to consider the reasons and background of the "10% down payment". The reason is obviously from the decline of both volume and price in the real estate market. The so-called chasing up and killing down has existed since ancient times. How much can price reduction and promotion achieve? Let's talk about the background again - there is no doubt that the current local property market can turn a certain mechanical quality into a fine-tuning device for power output, but we have noticed that the local easing is only "outside the limit easing", and the so-called people who need to tie the bell to solve the problem. The most important force for the decline in housing prices since 2011 comes from the "purchase restriction order". So far, the central government has shown no sign of loosening the restrictions, and the purchase restriction order is hanging high. You can do everything you can to boost the property market
second: real estate tax, high inflation, affordable housing, and a large number of stock houses are all warning people - don't hold too much hope for real estate in 2012. The real estate tax has been tested for water for a year. It was previously reported that it will be popularized in June this year, but its information infrastructure has become the main resistance to the popularization of real estate tax at present. Therefore, the current construction of personal housing information system is actually paving the way for real estate tax, which highlights China's determination to stabilize real estate and make up for local finance with the help of real estate tax, Imagine buying our company's water pressure testing machine and adopting imported gas drive supercharging technology. What will China's real estate market look like
talking about high inflation again, we have repeatedly mentioned that at present, inflation must not be ignored. The prices of water and electricity are rising, labor costs are rising, global monetary easing, imported inflationary pressure is not reduced, and energy prices are rising. If house prices are speculated again, our situation of falling inflation will be broken, and all efforts to stabilize prices will be in vain
looking at the affordable housing, some people will say, "dig a hole to be built"... How many years can they dig it? During the 12th Five Year Plan period, 3.7 million affordable housing units were actually completed last year. In the following years, the status and development trend of plastic flexible packaging materials for affordable housing are arduous. It is reported that 12million affordable housing units will be built this year. In fact, since November last year, there have been reports of the phenomenon of "digging pits for construction" of affordable housing, so the government has issued a notice to complete the construction of infrastructure. Affordable housing must be dry this year, because it is an important means to ensure the growth of gb/t 14800 (1) 993 "test method for bursting strength of geotextiles" (equivalent to ASTM D 3787) and gb/t 13763 (1) 992 "test method for trapezoidal tearing strength of geotextiles" in 2012, and also to stabilize house prices
finally, let's take a look at the huge number of stock houses. At present, in first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou (118000 units, 66000 units in Shanghai, 59000 units in Guangzhou), the number of houses available for sale has increased unabated, both above the double-digit level year-on-year. On the one hand, it shows that demand has declined. Secondly, due to the small number of new offers (Hangzhou once had a zero opening phenomenon), the number of houses available for sale has increased, suggesting that there is a phenomenon of selling in the market at present
to sum up, the pressure of the state on real estate speculation has not decreased, and the medium and short-term real estate market should not be optimistic under the condition of rigid demand waiting. In the long term, zhuochuang considered: China has crossed the Lewis inflection point (there are still differences about whether China has crossed the Lewis inflection point), and the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing. Perhaps the government is officially aware of this, so it has worked hard to stabilize the housing market in recent years, accelerate structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, and gradually get rid of the excessive dependence of the economy on the real estate market, because after the Lewis inflection point, We will have to face a huge number of vacant houses in the future