The hottest real estate industry in China has been

"Real estate" causes China's industry 4.0 to be postponed for at least 10 years

Introduction: Although, the current situation of China's real estate has been obvious to all; Although many Chinese people finally began to calm down, the scars caused by real estate on China's economy cannot be erased: real estate has experienced a golden decade of rapid development, which has also delayed China's industry 4.0 for at least a decade

current situation of China's manufacturing industry

I really don't know whether it's untimely or doomed. China's manufacturing industry encountered a good opportunity for transformation around 2000. If we move forward in a down-to-earth manner, innovation and upgrading will be natural. However, it happened that at that time, the real estate industry rose rapidly, quickly devouring China's manufacturing industry

in the face of the huge profits that the real estate industry can't reach, the enterprises with poor performance can't control it anymore, and they all join in it. Haier and Midea are not only home appliance manufacturers, but also real estate developers; Li Ning and Youngor (600177, Guba) not only make clothes, but also build houses. The fundamental goal of an enterprise is to pursue profits, and pursuing profits is still its nature

in the past, when we mentioned Youngor, we thought of suits. Later, when we mentioned Youngor, we thought of real estate. Even Li Ning wants to enter the real estate industry through the newly acquired subsidiaries in the past two years, involving the reconstruction plan of Shenyang Heping District, which is worth 40 billion yuan

compared with garment enterprises, 3C enterprises in household appliances pay more attention to innovation and need to be upgraded! But the focus is also on real estate. TCL group, Midea, Hisense and other familiar household appliance enterprises have already established real estate companies and operated for many years. It is not only real estate companies that buy land and build houses, sell clothes, sell electrical appliances, engage in medicine and education, but also rush into the real estate industry. The land kings that frequently appear everywhere are no longer the patents of real estate companies

the process is very happy, and the consequences are very serious: the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry has been shelved, and the real estate foam is blowing bigger and bigger. China's economy finally fell into two empty ends:

first, let's look at the current situation of China's manufacturing industry: data released by the National Bureau of statistics of China and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing (CFLP) on January 1, 2015 showed that China's (official) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.1 in December 2014, recording a fourth consecutive month of slowing expansion, hitting an 18 month low

in December 2014, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly higher than the critical point, and the growth momentum is still insufficient

the final value of HSBC manufacturing PMI in December announced on December 31, 2014 was 49.6, expected to be 49.5, and the previous value was 49.5, indicating that the manufacturing industry contracted for the first time in seven months. The survey focuses on small enterprises, which face great pressure, especially the high financing costs and difficulties in obtaining loans

let's take a look at the current situation of China's real estate

since 2014, the volume and price of the real estate market have fallen together. In December 2014, the average price of (New) housing in 100 cities in China was 10542 yuan per square meter (RMB, the same below), a month on month decrease of 0.44%. This is the eighth consecutive month that house prices in Baicheng have fallen, and the decline has expanded by 0.06 percentage points over the previous month. Just like the rising buildings, the inventory of property markets across China has also increased. Taking Hangzhou, a second tier city, as an example, it has been stable at about 150000 units

it is difficult for house prices to rise for another year in 2014. In particular, some third - and fourth tier cities, which were originally oversupplied, were in a slow-moving situation in 2013, and house prices in some cities may fall

now look back at the current situation of these enterprises, and you will find that real estate can only improve the profits of an enterprise in the short term, but can not make an enterprise long-term stability. Look at Li Ning and Youngor, they have encountered greater difficulties instead. This is really dramatic

this also reflects the current situation of China's economy

the key word of China's economy in 2014 is increase or decrease. In the past more than 30 years, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, creating a miracle of world economic growth. However, in recent years, China's GDP growth has slowed down significantly, from 10.3% in 2010, 9.2% in 2011, 7.8% in 2012 and 7.7% in 2013; In the first three quarters of this year, it was 7.4%, 7.5% and 7.3% respectively. The year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter fell significantly. Many experts predict that China's GDP growth rate will be around 7% in 2014, a significant decrease

we are not talking down China's economy and repeatedly emphasizing the threat of economic hollowing out, but it is an objective reality that China's economy has encountered difficulties

manufacturing is the foundation of industry 4.0. The reason why the concept of industry 4.0 originated in Germany is that Germany has been focusing on manufacturing for a long time. Germany also had a period of economic depression. Since the mid-1990s, for about 10 years, Germany has been called the patient of Europe because of its slow economic growth. However, since 2004, Germany's economic growth has accelerated significantly, the government debt ratio has been better controlled, and the employment situation has continued to improve

in 2011, Germany's economy was even more outstanding among the G7 countries, and many major economic indicators were significantly better than those of other G7 countries. A very important reason for the resurgence of the German economy is that it has long focused on the development of manufacturing industry, laying a solid foundation for the economic rise

the central bank believes that 3 arc welding is precisely this persistence and focus on the development of industrial manufacturing, which has saved Germany from the pain after the bursting of the foam economy. At the same time, it has also enabled Germany to rapidly rise and take the lead in recovery with the advantage of industrial manufacturing exports

China's manufacturing industry is in a dilemma

in Europe and the United States, enterprises often invest more than 10% of their profits in R & D and innovation. Enterprises engaged in manufacturing are often not short of money. Why don't they spend money on industrial upgrading? Moreover, the state has not spared no policies to promote industrial restructuring and industrial upgrading in recent years, but how many enterprises are willing to echo it? The essence of this transformation is that money comes slowly

real estate is different. On the one hand, the income is high, on the other hand, the risk is small (this was the case in previous years). House prices have been on the rise, and the government's occasional regulation has also increased. The income of enterprises from casually investing in a few real estate projects is much higher than that of their main projects. So all the profits, even the income, and even the operating funds borrowed from the bank were invested in the real estate. This is the way for the development of China's traditional manufacturing industry

when a large number of funds, resources and talents of the whole society flock to real estate, it will inevitably lead to a serious shortage of funds and resources flowing to the manufacturing industry, resulting in the shrinkage of the real economy and high-tech

as a result, the GDP of the United States depends on space, aviation, computers, biotechnology and modern agriculture, while Japan's GDP depends on cars and electronic products, while China's GDP now relies heavily on real estate, and the land sales revenue of some local governments even contributes 60% of the tax revenue. Until now, we are carrying the name of a manufacturing power, but it is difficult to find a national backbone in manufacturing, how sad

however, even today when the results are formulated, if many enterprises are allowed to go back to 2000 and give them a chance to choose again, I think most people will not hesitate to choose real estate. This is the current situation of Chinese enterprises

compared with the level of the United States, Japan, Britain, Germany and other developed countries, China's manufacturing industry today has a large gap in four aspects: basic materials, basic parts, basic processes and industrial technology. Many products lack core technology, and high-end equipment and key components rely on imports. Although processing trade once played a large role in China's entire foreign trade, it was mainly concentrated in the production, processing and assembly links, and its R & D capacity was insufficient

because the real core technology of most industries is not in the hands of Chinese manufacturing enterprises, Chinese manufacturing enterprises can only allocate extremely low profits, leading to the enterprises in the middle and upper reaches desperately squeezing the profit space of downstream enterprises, so that the downstream supply enterprises can not achieve significant development, and thus cannot establish a strong supply system

at this point, we have to mention Wenzhou, the epitome of China's economy. Just the day after the central bank cut interest rates in 201, a real estate in Wenzhou was crowded with people who came to buy houses, and there was a long-awaited scene of thousands of people robbing houses. This scenario is the most real reaction to the dilemma of China's manufacturing industry

a few years ago, many Wenzhou manufacturing enterprises were involved in real estate projects, but with the continuous decline of the real estate market, many such enterprises were locked up or even dragged down. In the past decade, the continuous decline of Wenzhou manufacturing industry is also an indisputable fact. In the face of manufacturing industry with increasingly low profit margin, investing in real estate is also a way out for many enterprises, including myself, who have tried to invest in real estate projects. Huang Fajing, chairman of RiFeng lighter, told me

in the 1990s, Wenzhou's manufacturing industry experienced a golden decade of rapid development. At the peak, 30% of clothing and shoes, 70% of low-voltage electrical appliances, and 90% of lighters in the world were produced in Wenzhou. However, real estate prices soared a few years ago, and many manufacturing enterprises invested in real estate projects. The phenomenon of large enterprises building buildings and small enterprises speculating in real estate is very common in Wenzhou. However, with the continuous decline of Wenzhou property market, many enterprises were trapped, and finally collapsed due to the fracture of the capital chain. Zhou Dewen said

according to the survey and statistics of Wenzhou banking regulatory branch around August this year, affected by the high barrier performance of chitin and polyvinyl alcohol under the price of commercial housing, the number of abandoned houses in Wenzhou reached 1107 at that time, involving 6.404 billion yuan of non-performing loans. Among them, the proportion of abandoned houses due to the shrinking value of mortgages is as high as 56%. Since June this year, Wenzhou has exposed several cases of enterprises running away due to the breakage of the capital chain caused by real estate projects. (this paragraph is excerpted from an interview with China Securities Journal)

this shows that China's manufacturing industry has not found a better way out after the failure of the first transformation. Until now, they have not got rid of their dependence on real estate