The hottest real estate may decline in 2017, and l

In 2017, real estate may decline in an all-round way, and local finance may fail again.

according to interviews from many parties, the phenomenon of "falling volume and rising price" in the land market in 2016 is becoming more and more obvious. According to the data of Centaline real estate research center, so far, a total of 2980 residential land transactions have been made in 36 key cities, with an area of 303.76 million square meters, down 17% year-on-year. 8%, but the transaction amount has reached 13081. 900 million yuan, up 52% year-on-year in 2015. 3％。

taking a new area in the East as an example, the area plans to transfer 20000 mu of land in 2016, and the target land transfer fee income is 1billion yuan. However, in the first three quarters of 2016, the area completed a total of 3203 mu of land transfer, accounting for 16% of the annual plan, and achieved a land transfer fee income of 6. 8.4 billion yuan, reaching the annual target of 68%, which means that the transfer fee has reached the target of nearly 70% under the background of less than 20% of the transfer area

take a first tier city as an example. So far, it has completed a total of 13 land parcel transfer transactions, with a total of about 8 ldquo; transfer of construction land including residential land; 1 coal is hard to find rdquo; It is imminent for all steel mills 4. 560000 square meters, with a planned construction area of about 186. 270000 square meters. There is also a huge gap with the 8.5 million square meters previously planned

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, said that land, as a scarce asset, was robbed by real estate enterprises. Since 2016, the land transaction amount of Suzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and other cities has exceeded 100billion yuan, which has exceeded the historical level in terms of premium rate, floor price and land transaction amount

in this context, local revenue has been significantly supported. Data show that in the first 10 months of 2016, the land transfer fee reached 2654.6 billion yuan, accounting for 88% of the income of local government funds, significantly higher than 80% in 2015. 26％。

in terms of growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate in the first 10 months has reached 15. 2%, significantly higher than that of -21 in 2015. 4% year-on-year growth

in addition, in terms of Taxation, there are currently 11 taxes related to the real estate industry, of which 5 taxes are unique to the real estate industry, including deed tax, land value-added tax, cultivated land occupation tax, urban land use tax and real estate tax. According to incomplete statistics of the economic information daily, in the first 10 months of this year, the total experimental machine parameters of five real estate specific taxes reached 3044.8 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of the general public budget revenue of local governments in the same period. In 2015, the total income of the above five taxes was 1. 4 trillion yuan, only 120.7 billion yuan in 2004. Therefore, according to preliminary calculation, in the first 10 months of this year, the sum of land transfer income and five major taxes related to real estate has reached nearly 5. 7 trillion yuan. Compared with the sum of local general budget and government funds in the same period, the proportion reached about 57%. According to the proportion of local fiscal revenue in 2015, roughly calculated, since this year, the proportion of local fiscal revenue relying on the land and real estate market has been about 40%

however, it is worth noting that with the introduction of local policies and constraints from capital, demand, credit and other aspects, the overheated transactions in the market will be significantly suppressed. This means that land revenue, the main part of local finance, will be significantly affected, and local finance may fall into "poor harvest" again

Wang daoshu, an inspector of the revenue planning and accounting department of the State Administration of Taxation, pointed out at the "China macroeconomic forum" a few days ago that the current low-speed growth of total tax revenue has become the norm, and the fiscal day has become increasingly tight. In terms of structure, the traditional tax sources have been reduced, and the new tax sources have not yet had enough tax driving force. Traditional tax sources such as tobacco, oil, finance and real estate continued to shrink, and tax growth in new areas such as information technology and business services could not offset the rapid decline

under the frequent regulation of the property market, the land market has shown obvious signs of cooling down. According to the data of Centaline real estate research center, in the first week of December, there were a total of 29 plots (including 2 commercial plots in Shenzhen and Shanghai) with a premium rate of more than 100. In the state of network control dredging, only 1 plot and 5 plots with a premium rate of more than 50%

"including several cases of all holding rental residential land transacted in Beijing, most cities have increased restrictions on land in order to avoid land kings." Zhang Dawei said that the increasing conditions of land transfer are the main reason for the cooling of land market data. In addition, the local initiative to suspend transfer is also an influencing factor. For example, the independent "expansion Ao converter" circuit Wuhan Hanzheng Street plot of 12.6 billion yuan, which was originally scheduled to be listed on December 8, was suddenly announced to be withdrawn on the afternoon of December 6

Chen Changchang, a member of the research group of China housing development report (), said that with the deepening of late regulation, it is expected that the land market will also tend to be stable with the acceleration of the pace of land supply in the first and second tier cities, and the probability of "land king" will be greatly reduced, making it difficult to maintain the rising land income

Chen Changchang believes that local governments can formulate and implement short-term and long-term land supply plans according to local conditions and adjust the structure of land supply

Jiang Zhen, an associate researcher at the Institute of fiscal strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that during the economic downturn, local fiscal revenue shows different effects due to different resource endowments, industrial structures and economic structures. Local governments should accelerate the process of transformation and strive to get rid of the excessive dependence of economic growth on resource endowments