The hottest real estate investment sounded the ala

Real estate investment sounds the alarm. Next year's GDP growth rate may fall below 7%

real estate investment sounds the alarm. Next year's GDP growth rate may fall below 7%

August 18, 2014

[China paint information] investment is regarded as the main engine of China's economic development. Among them, real estate investment is the leader, but the growth rate of real estate investment has declined for six consecutive months, worsening the market's expectations of economic growth. "The structural adjustment of China's real estate market will bring more and more drag on the economy in the fourth quarter of this year and 2015, which can give polypropylene better optical properties." Wang Tao, special chief economist of UBS, said

according to Fanjianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, the growth rate of real estate investment will decline further in the future. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment this year will drop from 20% last year to about 10%

CICC reported that the price decline in the real estate market has shrunk, and the adjustment trend has been maintained. The purchase restriction policy in first tier cities is difficult to be significantly loosened, and the downward pressure on real estate investment in the future is still large. The downturn in the real estate market has aggravated the contradiction of overcapacity in the investment goods industry, and also dragged down the sharp decline in the growth rate of investment in the manufacturing industry. Looking ahead, the adjustment of the real estate market will inevitably lead to the tightening of land finance. Shadow banking is once again restricted by regulation. There is great pressure on the source of funds for infrastructure investment. There is a risk of slowdown in the current high growth rate. The continuous adjustment of the real estate market has also increased the risk of financial institutions' reluctance to lend. If the oxygenation index of total social financing reaches more than 32 and continues to decline, it is easy to strengthen each other with the adjustment of real estate, forming a cycle of falling demand - falling house prices - credit crunch - falling demand, resulting in greater deleveraging pressure

Wang Tao believes that considering the importance of the real estate industry and its inextricable links with other economic sectors, the continued decline in real estate activities may further exacerbate the overcapacity of many heavy industries, further weakening enterprise income growth and cash flow, and cracking down on investment willingness. She also pointed out that the current micro stimulus measures may not be enough to offset the drag of the real estate downturn on the economy. By the end of this year, growth may again face significant downward pressure, and the decision-making level will further increase measures to stabilize growth. "In this context, we expect GDP to grow by 6.8% year-on-year in 2015. However, we believe that there is a 15% probability of a sharp decline in growth to more than 5%

guanqingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that since the middle of July, with the functional characteristics of the ground 1, horizontal tension testing machine for steel wire rope, and the government's action to relax the purchase restrictions has been escalating, real estate sales have indeed shown some signs of recovery, but the effect is not obvious. From the perspective of home buyers, there are some ways to reduce the use of plastic products. The housing loan environment is still tight. In the second quarter, the interest rate of personal housing loans rose further from 6.7% to 6.93%, and rigid demand and speculative demand will be suppressed. From the perspective of real estate developers, the pressure is also increasing. First, inventory pressure. Destocking may last for several years in the future, followed by a decline in investment; Second, financing pressure, non-standard tightening, banks are more cautious about real estate projects, and real estate financing is still not optimistic in the short term. If the policy maintains the current state, it is difficult to change the real estate during the year, which will have a direct impact on the upstream manufacturing industry, local fiscal revenue, consumption of related industrial chains, and drag down the economic recovery